News

Landmark Links August 25th – Game Over

 

Lead Story… Libor, or the London Inter Bank Offer Rate is a scandal-ridden mess and now it’s going to die.  The 50-year old global borrowing benchmark has been plagued by corruption and manipulation of late which has led to a decision to pull the plug.  From BloombergMarkets:

The U.K. Financial Conduct Authority will phase out the key interest-rate indicator by the end of 2021 after it became clear there wasn’t enough meaningful data to sustain the benchmark that underpins more than $350 trillion in securities, Andrew Bailey, the head of the regulator, said in a speech Thursday at Bloomberg’s London office.

The end of the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, is welcome on many levels for regulators. It was tied to some of the banking industry’s biggest scandals, leading to about $9 billion in fines and the conviction of several bankers for manipulating the rate. Relying on the opinions of industry insiders to set the daily estimates based on interbank lending — some in markets that saw fewer than 20 transactions annually — was unacceptable, Bailey said.

“Libor is trying to do too many things: it’s trying to be a measure of bank risk and it’s trying to substitute for interest-rate risk markets where really it would be better to use a risk-free rate,” said Bailey in an interview with Bloomberg News before the speech. “It’s had to come to a conclusion.”

On many levels, this was inevitable.  As mentioned above, the benchmark was ripe for manipulation that could result in substantial economic rewards for lenders given the incredible amount of debt that is priced off of it.  The question becomes where do we go now that the preferred index for the majority of adjustable loan products is set to exit stage left in 2021.  That problem could be a particularly perplexing one for real estate as Christina Rexrode explained in a recent Wall Street Journal article (emphasis mine):

The Libor index is going away. For U.S. consumers, its demise is most likely to be felt in adjustable-rate mortgages.

So-called ARMs—where the interest rate rises and falls with broader indexes—are often closely tied to Libor, or the London interbank offered rate. While ARMs are out of favor these days, they are still a sizable portion of the mortgage market, and once Libor disappears it is unclear to what those mortgages would be pegged.

U.K. authorities recently said Libor would be phased out over the next five years due to allegations bankers manipulated it, which could prove troublesome for borrowers, lenders and investors in mortgage securities.

“In a fairly short amount of time, no one is going to know how to compute what the next payment is going to be” for this kind of mortgage, said Lou Barnes, a capital markets analyst with Premier Mortgage Group in Boulder, Colo. ”And that’s why it’s important.”

Such mortgages were popular before the financial crisis, when lenders used their low teaser rates to get borrowers into bigger homes. They have been a tougher sell in an era of superlow interest rates, but still account for roughly $1.33 trillion of mortgages outstanding, according to Black Knight Financial Services Inc., a mortgage data and technology firm.

That is nearly 14% of the overall market, and lenders had been expecting that share to grow as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates. Banks also favor ARMs for jumbo mortgages, high-dollar amount loans they view as a source of revenue growth.

 So what does all of that mean?  First off, I suspect that the percentage of adjustable rate mortgages is substantially higher in a place like CA where jumbo loans are the rule and not the exception.  In reality, pretty much every loan has a provision for index replacement should the initial pricing index become discontinued or unavailable.  The problem is that no one knows what that index is going to be which has led to uncertainty.  In the world of residential mortgages, it probably makes sense to have a universal standard set by Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac since so many of these loans are packaged and sold in the secondary market.  However even this approach has issues since there is a continued push in some political and financial circles to get rid of the two mortgage giants completely.
 
Commercial real estate loans could be a bit more difficult since it is a substantially more fragmented world.  It would be nice to know what the replacement is going to be up front since many (most) adjustable rate loans are still being underwritten today using Libor ever though it will be gone long before maturity.  However, it has not happened yet.  This is going to cause a not unsubstantial amount of uncertainty for commercial borrowers going forward not to mention a mountain of paperwork and compliance issues when the vast majority of adjustable rate loans need to change indexes en masse.  If I have one prediction to make on how the situation works out, it would be this: as a general rule, the borrower never ends up better off in this sort of situation but the lender quite often does.  Stay tuned.
 

Economy

Substitution Effect: How older, well paid Baby Boomers retiring is keeping a lid on wage growth in the US.  See Also: The Federal Reserve is still banking on low unemployment spurring inflation eventually but the market doesn’t think the Fed will follow through this year.

Rising Tide: There is an argument that higher minimum wages spur technological advancement that is painful at first but often pays off down the road.

Sounding the Alarm: Wall Street Banks are starting to signal that the business cycle is peaking.

Commercial

At What Price: Despite a thriving local economy, sky high rents that have far outpaced retail sales growth are keeping SoHo shopfronts vacant.

Residential

Back to the Burbs: Older Millennials are increasingly buying homes in the suburbs and large SUVs, both of which so-called experts said that they would never do.

No Quick Fix: The California housing affordability crisis has been decades in the making.  It will take more than quick legislative fixes to get us out of it.

Premium Product: Yes, new home sales are up but a higher percentage of those new homes are high-priced luxury units than ever before which will likely keep a lid on production. See Also: Shares of home builders look pricey and vulnerable to a correction as costs rise and affordability is strained.

Non-Conforming: Jay-Z and Beyonce took out a $52.8MM mortgage to purchase an $88MM mansion in Bel Air.  I probably shouldn’t give unsolicited advice to those far wealthier than I am but will do it anyway.  Even though LA is expensive, you can still purchase a very livable home there for the $35.2MM that you used as a down payment.  Perhaps that would have been a better idea? And for those of you who think that these type of massive loans to extremely wealthy people don’t go bad: they do.

Profiles

The Hunt: Pretty much everything these days needs batteries.  Satisfying battery demand require large amounts of lithium and lithium is not easy to find or extract.

Wild West: Wall Street’s cowboy traders are finding fertile ground in crypto-currency trading as HFT becomes a tougher space in which to make money.

This Ends in Tears: A model and a rapper are heading up an initial coin offering for a company that says it is going to use blockchain technology to revolutionize the weed industry.

Unlikely Alliance: Walmart and Google are partnering up  to challenge Amazon’s eCommerce empire.

Millennial Dream Job: Meet a guy who makes a living translating emojis.

Chart of the Day

Source: Tax FoundationBureau of Economic Analysis

WTF

Groovy: Police seize 5,000 orange ecstasy tablets shaped like the head of Donald Trump because, Germany. (h/t Darren Fancher)

Staff Meeting: A man openly masturbating in a hospital led to a brawl because, Florida.

Delicious Irony: Firefighters who saved piglets get them back as ‘thank you’ sausage.

Landmark Links – A candid look at the economy, real estate, and other things sometimes related.

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