Landmark Links June 7th – Stuck on the Sideline

Must Read The recent plunge in bond yields has resulted in the lowest mortgage rates in a year and a half.  While they haven’t impacted homebuyers much yet, refinance activity is picking up again.


It’s Different: Today’s primary recession risk comes from a negative supply shock (trade leading to reduced buying power), whereas the past two recessions were brought on by negative demand shocks (excess investment).  If this comes to bear, the ensuing recession will likely be substantially shallower than the prior two.  But See: Bill McBride is still not on recession watch despite tariff risk.

Soft: The markets are demanding a Fed rate cut before the economy actually turns.  See Also: The coddling of the American investor.

The Trap: Central banks once worried about too much inflation, now they fear an inability to generate more of it.


Macro Play: Blackstone is buying a US warehouse network from Singapore-based LP for $18.7 billion in the largest private real estate transaction ever.

No Reprieve: Mall-based retailers reported dismal earnings last week, reminding investors of the sector’s fundamental problems.

Cold is the New Hot: CNBC picks up the story about  cold storage as a secular growth story.


Over Built: Despite the massive housing shortage in California, there is one market segment where a glut exists: LA megamansions.  A spec house boom has resulted in years of inventory over $20MM on the market and developers – many of whom are not experienced – are stuck with massive property tax and financing bills as hold times balloon.

High As A Kite: Legalized cannabis has a positive correlation with increasing home prices. according to a new study.

New Standard: The Federal Housing Finance Agency is standardizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage backed securities, which should create greater trading volume and lower yield, resulting in lower interest rates for home buyers.


Hacked: Quantum computers will be able to break current encryption within a decade, putting global security and privacy at risk. That has security experts scrambling to come up with new ways to protect data before it is too late

Disruption: Dropping crime rates during the 1990s may have been due in part to the rise of cell phone technology, which made physical turf less important to drug dealers.

This is Fascinating: Here’s an interactive map of the United States where city names are replaced by their most Wikipedia’ed resident.  WARNING: This will harm your productivity.

Chart of the Day



Source: AEI


Hold Up: A drunken, armed charter boat captain held boat passengers who were out fishing with him captive because Florida.

Standing at Attention: A man who was busted for masturbating in a gym while watching a woman work out claimed that she ‘liked it’ because Florida.

Gotcha: A man who called 911 to brag about fleeing a traffic stop after drugs were found in his vehicle was arrested when he gave away his location because Florida.

Hard Pass: An establishment called The San Francisco Dungeon in Fisherman’s Wharf is trying to launch a bar where patrons can drink with rats. The health department should just rubber stamp this and let natural selection handle the rest, if you ask me.

Landmark Links – A candid look at the economy, real estate, and other things sometimes related.

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